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孙茂远:煤层气如何决战“十三五” [复制链接]

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煤层气如何决战“十三五”来源:《能源评论》杂志

文·孙茂远

“十二五”期间,全国累计利用煤层气305亿立方米,相当于节约标煤3700万吨,减排二氧化碳4.58亿吨。对比煤层气、煤矿瓦斯开发利用“十二五”规划(简称煤层气“十二五”规划)与实际完成情况,可谓有喜有忧。

喜在我国煤层气大产业链已具雏形,产业中、下游建设超额完成目标,为今后的健康、持续、加速发展打下一定的基础。煤矿瓦斯事故的持续改善,又彰显了煤层气产业的社会效益。忧在煤层气产量与规划目标相差较大,特别是地面煤层气产量的巨大短板,不仅拖了我国煤层气产业的后腿,也在某种程度上打击了社会的期望。

“十二五”已悄然走过,煤层气产业踏入“十三五”的征程,大方向要着力强化上游,进一步联通、完善中下游建设。未来瓶颈何在?如何利用优势与抓手?怎样清障加油、精准定位,再战“十三五”?一系列问题尚待破解。


上游严重滞后

“十二五”期间,外部条件和内部因素的交互作用,致使煤层气产业上游困顿、举步维艰。

与国外相比,我国煤层气资源禀赋差异大,高应力区块、构造煤区块、超低渗以及深部区域等难采煤层气资源占总资源量的75%以上,利用常规的油气和国外技术都无法有效开采。致使目前煤层气有利区块少,开发生产过于集中。就全国而言,山西一省独大;沁水盆地和鄂尔多斯盆地东缘的局地,地面抽采煤层气产量占全国总产量的90%以上。

虽然我国政府高度重视煤层气的开发力度,由于各种原因经济扶持政策仍不到位。比如增值税返还中地方退税的部分常常无法落实。因此,现行扶持政策仍不能起到充分激励产业发展的作用。煤层气开发企业大多亏损经营,自我发展能力差,投资积极性受挫。

全球经济增长乏力,国内能源投资和消费需求放缓,持续下行的低油价,导致煤、电、油、气等常规能源需求大幅下降,价格跳水。特别是当前天然气价格的大幅下调,进一步削弱和淹没了煤层气产业减免税收和财政补贴的效果。

煤层气产业的中、下游机制相对灵活,大量社会资金投入较为方便。由于体制机制所限,社会资金则难于融入上游,开发生产仅囿于少数央企、国企,资金来源不足、资金链薄弱。

政府的审批项目和程序繁杂,很大程度上也制约了煤层气勘探开发的进度。常规油气区块占压大量煤层气资源,煤层气矿权范围狭小。

煤层气上游发展乏力的内因,主要源于科技瓶颈和施工作业问题。

多年来,国家“863”计划、“973”计划、高技术产业化示范工程以及国家科技重大专项等科技支撑项目的实施,研发出一批科技成果,解决了常规的煤层气勘探、开发、生产、利用的技术和工艺问题。山西沁水盆地南部国家高技木产业化示范工程平均单井产量居国内第一,世界先进水平。多分支水平井、连续油管分段压裂、低渗透水平井分段压裂、构造煤顶板水平井压裂等先进技术,也取得较好的效果。

但是,针对我国高比重的各类难采煤层气资源,迄今尚未从基础理论和技术工艺方面取得根本性突破。这种科技瓶颈导致我国煤层气井平均单井产量低、成本效益差。

“十二五”初期,在国家政策的倡导下,煤层气井施工数显著上升。但是,由于急于求成,出现不按勘探、开发程序,盲目部署、盲目施工的现象。在此期间,3000多口井打在构造煤带,2000多口井打在深层高矿化度致密煤带,几百口井打在邻近断裂带的高产外源水带,另有几百口井打在大倾角煤带。现有生产井中,75%为单产低于600立方米的低产井。

有些煤层气企业在钻井施工中,过度采取低成本措施。致使低价中标的施工队伍业务素质差、设备不合格,挂名转包的现象也屡见不鲜,严重地影响了煤层气井的成井质量。比如,有一个区块,施工了26口直井,只有1口井质量合格。施工作业的低质低效,也成为大量低产井的原因之一。

在上述外部条件和内部因素的交互作用下,煤层气产业的上游经济效益不好,相关企业科技投入和施工量也随之减少,二者恶性循环,致使投资和钻井工程量逐年锐减。“十二五”期间,每年新钻煤层气井从最多的4000多口,骤降至2015年的几百口。


“十三五”目标应实事求是

“十三五”期间,煤层气开发要立足强化中部,建设西部,推进西南,促进煤矿区地面和煤矿井下联合开采。

继续强化中部地区沁水盆地和鄂尔多斯盆地东缘煤层气生产基地建设,在原有基础上,增储上产,特别要提高储量转产能的增速,以及产能达产的转化率。争取“十三五”期间,两大基地产量达到90~100亿立方米,建成较为完善的两大煤层气产业化生产基地。

在新疆、陕西等西部地区,建设新的煤层气生产基地。在西南部的贵州、四川、重庆等地建设一批煤层气开发利用示范工程,突破低煤阶、构造煤、深部等复杂条件的难采煤层气开发。

推广淮南矿区经验和山西省煤矿区煤层气地面抽采全覆盖的设想,促进地面与煤矿井下联动抽采,争取煤矿区地面抽采的煤层气产量上规模(5亿立方米/年以上)。

纵观“十二五”,地面煤层气产量每年平均递增5.7亿立方米,平均年增速率23%;煤矿井下抽采每年平均递增11.4亿立方米,平均年递增率12.1%,递增量和递增率呈逐年下降态势;全国煤层气(煤矿瓦斯)总平均年增速为14.9%,年利用量平均增速18%。

谋划“十三五”的煤层气产量目标,应力求实事求是,积极慎重,周密部署和确保落实。美国煤层气产量从30亿立方米/年增至600亿立方米,仅用不足10年,煤层气产量(销售量)年均增长50亿立方米以上。囿于我国煤层气资源及科技水平等条件,我国煤层气产业不可能陡线超速增长,需要因地制宜,缓、快结合,稳步推进。由于产量基数增大,在目前的条件下,“十三五”煤层气产量年增速10%左右为宜,总产量260~300亿立方米。井下抽采量增速将下降,产气量预计140~160亿立方米,力争煤矿区煤层气利用量达到45%~50%,地面煤层气产量,增速力争在24%左右。


“清障加油”的战略对策

遵循党中央“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”的发展理念,审时度势,理清煤层气产业的发展思路十分重要。在我国能源消费导引的供给侧改革,即调结构、补短板的进程中,煤层气开发利用作为救命工程、环保工程和新能源工程,倍加受到社会的关注,煤层气产业理所当然属于国家重点支持和鼓励的范畴。

建议政府层面继续加大政策支持力度,为我国煤层气产业创造较为良好的发展环境。一是根据国外行之有效的激励政策和我国的实际情况,以及煤层气生产成本及气价的变化,适度增加财政补贴,补贴额度以气价的一半左右为宜。目的旨在吸引和激励社会投资煤层气开发的积极性,提升煤层气开发企业的竞争力和培植自我发展能力。二是制订煤层气气价的保护性政策(或者气价下跌、财政补贴增加),控制因气价下跌而冲销财政补贴的效果。三是采取政策措施,使社会资金便于投资煤层气上游。比如鼓励主要煤层气矿权持有者的三大国企实行混合所有制改革,吸收民企共享经营;国土资源部门研究解决常规油气矿权与煤层气资源重叠的难题,扩大目前过小的煤层气矿权设置,为煤层气产业提供有利的发展空间,也为社会资本涉足煤层气开发创造资源条件;参照国外经验,明确煤层气矿权人可以同时开采矿权范围内煤系地层的烃类气体,同样享受优惠政策;简化政府审批的煤层气项目和程序,深化政府的协调、服务意识。特别加强地方政府在沁水盆地和鄂尔多斯盆地东缘等重点煤层气生产基地的协调服务,及时协助相关企业解决征、程地项目、地方审批等难题,推进国家重大煤层气工程项目的实施。

科技进步是煤层气产业发展的重要核心,内因是产业和企业增强竟争力的最大原动力。我国煤层气资源量为36.81万亿立方米,但是构造煤、超低渗、深部及低阶煤等难采资源量约占75%,利用现有常规油气技术和国外煤层气常规开发技术难以取得好的经济效果。从“十一五”末期开始实施的《大型油气田及煤层气开发》国家重大科技专项,政府的投入史无前例,充分表明国家对煤层气科技进步的重视和支持。我们要以国家科技重大专项为依托,以企业牵头,产、学、研相结合,围绕各类煤层气开发示范工程,带动相关基础理论研究和装(设)备研发。最终形成适用于各类资源条件、具有中国特色的煤层气勘探开发系列技术和工艺,有效提高煤层气单产水平和成本效益。

技术创新与现有先进技术集成相结合。利用现有的先进技术集成,加大与之匹配的资源开发力度。通过技术创新或利用国内、外现有适用技术,改造低产井,提高煤层气生产井的达产率。

勘探开发工程施工,要严格按照科学程序进行,地质研究先行,精心设计,循序渐进,杜绝盲目冒进。施工队伍应具备合格的资质和高技术水平,不搞层层转包,杜绝不合理的低成本中标,规范加强施工作业的监理,保障施工作业的高质量。

“十三五”期间,通过创造良好的外部环境、加大政府政策扶持力度,加以产业内部科技进步和精心作业,内外因素合力,可以有效地为煤层气产业的发展清障加油,我国将建成较为成熟的煤层气产业,为“十四五”最终建成具有中国特色的煤层气产业打下坚实的基础。

(作者系国家能源委专家咨询委员会委员)


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Roy Hodgson,Cheap Soccer Jerseys, the coach of England's national football team, has raised concerns about the state of the surface ahead of his team's European Championship qualifier against Slovenia on Saturday.
Maslin says the surface is unlikely to be back to its best until March.
LONDON (AP) — Wembley Stadium officials are refusing to blame the poor condition of the field on the decision to stage three NFL games at the venue in a six-week span,Wholesale Jerseys China.
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Brown filed a lawsuit in New York against Lelands,Blake Swihart Jersey.com and Leland's Collectibles Inc. The lawsuit said the ring was stolen from Brown's Cleveland home in the late 1960s and sought to block Lelands' sale,Jerseys Soccer Authentic.
NEW YORK (AP) — A memorabilia dealer has counter-sued Hall of Fame football star Jim Brown for $1 million in a dispute over his 1964 NFL championship ring,Boston Celtics Jerseys.
Lelands says Brown's lawsuit diminished the value of the ring and forced the dealer to pull it out of an online auction,2018 World Cup Russia Jerseys.
The counter-suit filed by Leland's on Friday says Brown's ex-wife became the owner of the ring after their divorce and sold it to a collector in the 1980s,http://www.soccerpro.us.com/Arsenal-FC/. It says the ring changed hands several times before Lelands bought it in May,WBC Jerseys.
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Return Specialist: Jacoby Jones, Baltimore
Defensive End:  Cameron Wake,http://www.soccerpro.us.com/AC-Milan-FC/, Miami; Sheldon Richardson, New York Jets
Wide Receivers: Golden Tate, Detroit; Reggie Wayne,College Jerseys, Indianapolis
The team:
Cornerback: Vontae Davis, Indianapolis; Terence Newman, Dallas
Placekicker: Chandler Catanzaro, Arizona
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Peyton Manning, Rob Gronkowski and Earl Thomas are among the 26 players chosen by USA Football for its All-Fundamental team.
Punter: Jon Ryan, Seattle
Linebacker: Khalil Mack, Oakland; Luke Kuechly, Carolina; Tamba Hali, Kansas City

Quarterback: Peyton Manning, Denver
Center: Ryan Kalil, Carolina
Fullback: John Kuhn, Green Bay
"These 26 men serve as examples to the millions of youth football players across the nation that fundamentals are vital to success at every level," said Peterson,Nike Atlanta Hawks Authentic Jerseys, USA Football's chairman and a longtime NFL executive. "According to medical experts, players who master the fundamentals and learn them at younger ages are safer as they progress within the sport."
Long Snapper: Cullen Loeffler, Minnesota
Running Back: Matt Forte, Chicago
Tackle: Jason Peters, Philadelphia; Joe Thomas, Cleveland
Defensive Tackle: Gerald McCoy,Cheap Atlanta Braves Jerseys, Tampa Bay; Kyle Williams,Chad Williams Jersey, Buffalo
Among the other players chosen for the squad are Reggie Wayne, Golden Tate, Matt Forte, Joe Thomas, Luke Kuechly, Cameron Wake, Gerald McCoy and three rookies: place kicker Chandler Catanzaro, linebacker Khalil Mack, and guard Zack Martin.
Players from 22 NFL teams have been selected with guidance from a five-man committee of Bill Polian, Herm Edwards, Merril Hoge, Charles Davis and Carl Peterson.
Safety: Ryan Clark, Washington; Earl Thomas, Seattle
Guard: Zach Martin, Dallas; Marshal Yanda, Baltimore
USA Football, the governing body for the sport in the United States, recognizes NFL players who employ proper technique,Cheap Adidas Hockey Jerseys, particularly when blocking and tackling, which fosters safety benefits and better on-field performances.
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, New England
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