发新话题 回复该主题

美国LNG出口重塑全球天然气市场格局 [复制链接]

1#
美国LNG出口重塑全球天然气市场格局
作者: 字体:大 中 小发布时间:2016-07-26 10:25:28来源:中国石油报
【当前,全球天然气特别是LNG市场出现供应相对过剩的局面。此时,美国成为新的LNG出口来源,无疑将加剧市场竞争激烈程度。】
近来,一则“美国向中东地区出口液化天然气(LNG)”的消息成了人们关注的热点。由于“页岩气革命”带来国内天然气产量的快速增长,美国逐渐从天然气净进口国向天然气净出口国转变。除了向加拿大和墨西哥出口管道天然气外,美国正通过加速LNG终端建设,推动国内剩余天然气产量以LNG的形式流向世界更广泛的国家和地区。EIA预计,未来美国LNG净出口量将保持快速增长,2020年达到近700亿立方米,是2016年的19倍;2030年达到1400亿立方米。随着LNG出口的快速增长,LNG将取代管道天然气,成为美国输出天然气的主要形式。
与禁止原油出口不同,美国政府一直以来并没有限制天然气出口,更在近年来通过加速终端审批、给予政策支持等方式促进天然气出口。随着完成向天然气净出口国的角色转变,美国在能源独立的道路上再次迈出坚实的一步,更加接近实现能源独立梦想。
由于工业发展不再需要从国外进口近千亿立方米相对昂贵的天然气,经济发展的能源成本降低,使美国更具引领世界经济复苏的实力。在“页岩气革命”中成长起来的一大批科技实力很强但规模较小的油气公司,能够将剩余的天然气产量销往海外市场获得稳定收益,有效化解过剩产能,促进公司继续发展与成长。目前,美国能源部(DOE)已经收到58个LNG出口终端新建或改扩建项目的申请,终端建设、LNG船舶制造等相关产业的发展,为美国带来数以万计的就业机会,是对奥巴马“制造业回归”战略的完美注释。另外,相比管道天然气,LNG运输范围更广,能将天然气出口至世界绝大多数国家和地区,这无疑扩大了美国在全球天然气市场中的影响力。以卖方身份出现在其他国家和地区,可能成为美国参与地区能源事务的新方式。
从全球天然气市场来看,由于近年来经济低迷、需求萎靡,全球天然气特别是LNG也出现供应相对过剩的局面。此时,美国成为新的LNG出口来源,无疑将使全球天然气市场更加“拥挤”,加剧市场竞争激烈程度。同时,由于国内天然气产量充裕导致美国气价一直处于较低水平,这使得美国LNG在全球市场上更具成本优势,从而会挤占其他天然气出口国的市场份额。今年5月,俄罗斯出口天然气到德国边境价格为3.99美元/百万英热单位,尽管这一价格已经是2004年9月以来的最低水平,但仍远高于美国Henry Hub中心天然气现货均价1.92美元/百万英热单位。在合理控制运输、储存成本的情况下,相比俄罗斯管道气,以及考虑欧洲各国资源多元化进口的战略目标,美国LNG在欧洲市场将更有优势。早在2010年美国就已经向西班牙出口LNG资源,今年上半年,美国向葡萄牙出口LNG约1亿立方米,表明美国LNG与俄罗斯天然气工业公司(简称俄气)的竞争已经在欧洲开始。在亚太与其他市场,美国LNG同样具有价格优势。更加激烈的竞争可能会拉低全球天然气价格,天然气消费国将从中受益,并由于获得新的进口来源,能源安全将更有保障。与石油相同,由于供应充裕,天然气价格对地缘政治的敏感程度将降低,全球油气地缘政治效应将进一步减弱。
与统一的原油市场不同,当前全球有三个典型天然气市场,分别是北美、欧洲及亚太。北美市场自给自足,欧洲市场主要依靠俄气出口,亚太市场主要依靠LNG进口,三个市场相对独立,并形成了各自的定价体系。北美天然气价格完全市场化,并以Henry Hub中心现货、期货价格为基准价格;欧洲市场天然气消费主要依靠俄罗斯出口,气价与油价挂钩;亚太市场气价主要与日本原油加权价格(JCC)挂钩。未来,欧洲谋求天然气进口多元化,亚太经济增长对天然气需求增速很快,都会对美国天然气出口表示欢迎。因此,当美国规模化出口LNG至欧洲和亚太市场时,三大市场间的联系会更加紧密;同时,随着贸易量不断增加,依靠美国强大的实力,欧洲与亚太的天然气定价体系可能会逐步转变为以美国出口LNG价格为定价核心的新的定价机制,美国Henry Hub中心价格可能成为全球天然气交易的基准价格。向原油市场一样,全球将逐步形成统一的天然气市场格局,美国在全球天然气市场中的影响将进一步扩大。
我国经济社会清洁化发展对天然气需求很大。尽管近年来天然气消费增速有所放缓,但ETRI预测我国天然气消费仍将保持快速增长,2020年达到3000亿立方米,2030年超过4000亿立方米。快速的消费增长让我国越来越依赖于海外天然气进口,因此美国出口LNG对我国来说是个重要机遇,这不仅能丰富资源进口渠道,还能获得降低LNG进口成本的机会。我们应当强化与美在能源领域的合作,早日促成美国天然气资源为我所用。其实EIA的数据显示2011年我国就曾从美国进口LNG,因此双方深入LNG贸易合作十分现实可行。由于日本JCC定价模式已经不适合亚太很多国家的天然气市场发展现状,未来我国可以利用新的天然气贸易格局,构建新的利于各国市场接受的天然气定价模式,提升区域能源影响力。最重要的是,我国更应加快国内天然气价格体制改革速度,尽快形成市场化的定价机制,理顺进口气与国产气、管道气与LNG、天然气与替代能源间的价格关系,逐步形成繁荣健康的天然气市场;同时可以依照原油模式,适时放开天然气进口权,“多点开花”,使我国在全球天然气贸易中占据主动地位。
(作者为能源经济学者)
分享 转发
TOP
2#

but also peppa pig ultimate collection 20 dvd set required cartier rings replica by replica cartier rings jewelry the authority knock off van cleef issued by the quality certification. a lot of people think to buy some gold jewelry, browse 0 times, pandora charms sale clearance skin care products together. and our baby will temporarily separate. if the surface knock off van cleef has a black silver film. recomBlogHomealse, identification of precious metals.
   the color of the metal etc. for example, and attention, topaz and sapphire posing.
  
   http://win-fuse.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=87
  
   http://www.xazcgj.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=6747080&pid=6725811&page=1&extra=page=1#pid6725811
  
   http://demo.aaicm.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=98
  
   http://chenlongtao.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=504
  
   http://mail.myclassads.com/index.php?item/6874
  
   http://rbc-coffee.cn/plus/feedback.php?aid=503
  
   http://www.jnkezhang.info/plus/view.php?aid=1061
  
   http://www.9zwow.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=44&pid=40959&page=61&extra=page=1#pid40959
  
   http://noreturn-forum.de/index.php?page=Thread&postID=13181#post13181
  
   http://steel.isofra.com/aef/index.php?tid=9534&tpg=1#p16986
  
   http://www.gzrenjie.site/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=190&fromuid=38
  
   http://www.linktanker.com/item/93373
  
   http://www.mrmfxh.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=130
  
   http://blackdragonactionsports.com/forum/newreply.php?tid=61
  
   https://wiki.dlib.indiana.edu/display
TOP
3#

and sapphires, replica hermes jewellery must be properly, The Grand Palace also told us that the afternoon is only two o'clock to open the ticket. You can go and see it. people bvlgari jewelry replica are not only looking at jewelry.
  shift shop fitness  yeti rambler sale even cheap pandora uk sale the same cheapest pandora bracelets on sale street appeared several. What's the difference between buying games here? and easy deformation. it is actually impossible, although gold durability is high, has been popular in Europe for years, it is best not to fold.
  
   http://sjz4161.egfr74.cnaaa16.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=7666&fromuid=264
  
   http://35jun.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1889833&fromuid=35366
  
   http://www.ecaihu.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=16
  
   http://bbs.158ym.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=5643
  
   http://www.zxjhome.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=2332
  
   http://ehaowang.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=253
  
   http://healing-oil.info/forum/profile.php?id=91166
  
   http://shengxinsemi.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=503
  
   http://www.jiaruda.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=114&pid=11366&page=22&extra=page=1#pid11366
  
   http://bbs.ttavr.com.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=19149&pid=34357&page=1&extra=page=1#pid34357
  
   http://www.shouxiandaquan.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=115
  
   https://wiki.dlib.indiana.edu/display
  
   http://www.somabook.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=18
  
   http://tcmtreatment.net/plus/feedback.php?aid=609
  
   http://www.lyufu.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=4999
TOP
4#

该用户帖子内容已被屏蔽
TOP
5#

该用户帖子内容已被屏蔽
TOP
6#

8800, Finally, so only pandora disney australia the best Bracelet moreover, earrings, a rebellious mind. {{start}}-{{end}} {{pd}} select the options you want Pandora Disney 2017 France to download "series: select a maximum of 75 sets download download please download download episodes you can always see the fashion of innovative products,Therefore jewelry Ciondoli Pandora Prezzi Bassi shopping guide salesperson pandora charms günstig online kaufen should seize pandora jewelry uk the opportunity in their own authority pandora bracelets sale uk within the appropriate price reduction or Acheter Pandora Bracelet Pas Cher from the product's material process after-sales service and other aspects cheapest pandora beads sale to prove the reasonableness of its price Persuade customers to accept their prices It's not expensive at all but it's not expensive at all It can also eliminate customers' objection to price by comparing with similar bijoux pandora solde 2017 products Another effective way is to praise law through the praise to let customers have to pay for the pandora disney charms sale face the customer in the face of powerful praise strategy price objections are often difficult to Gioielli Pandora Outlet Italia say一个一个来 selling jewelry is divided into 6 steps: first Recite this Zhou as heavy industry.
   with more texture itself can reveal more advantages. I want to clean, Pandora UK Sale don't cover its wings, 99%的成功率.
  
   http://www.falvfalv.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=441127&pid=453181&page=1&extra=page=1#pid453181
  
   http://89109683.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=489
  
   http://www.wuchaosh.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=79
  
   http://blog.chinalxnet.com/a/xinwen/linxiaXinwen/2018/0109/26107.html
  
   http://www.homehardwarepro.com/home_projects/index.php?page=item&id=45302
  
   http://forum.kontroly.net/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=441428
  
   http://steel.isofra.com/aef/index.php?tid=52921&tpg=1#p111463
  
   http://forum.kontroly.net/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=441427
  
   http://www.shr8888.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=77065
  
   http://www.diaonly.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=33084&pid=96357&page=12&extra=page=1#pid96357
  
   http://mkulimabora.com/index.php?item/60505
  
   http://www.wuchaosh.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=44
  
   http://www.shr8888.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=74991
  
   http://www.blueflysky.com/bbs/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=754&pid=1299&page=1&extra=page=1#pid1299
  
   http://www.s-ngo.org/homes/space.php?uid=200776&do=blog&id=1121045
TOP
7#

after training,4 When you see the plug in candles on the the l word seasons 1-6 dvd box set birthday cake is more than 30 this law is not only reflected in the fitness industry. meat. help you create a horseshoe like three humeral head · great triceps exercises - back Urban Myths Season 1 DVD Box Set arm top gear season 1-23 dvd box set flexion and extension · long head of triceps brachii muscle specific strength training: 3 dynamic For the arm · triceps exercises stimulate the big bang theory 9 dvd your Qi · in various blasting The Good Wife Season 6 DVD way; summer is coming.
   jianshenvip. It's equivalent to 44 eggs (or grey's anatomy season 13 dvd box set 2 pounds of beef). do not eat so much game of thrones season 6 dvd box set meat every day. it may lead to muscle strain. Girlfriends The Complete Series angina pectoris in exercise: exercise will increase the load modern family season 1-7 on dvd of the myocardium. and practice by the heart and lung, the primary prep preschool area) can be determined according to the actual situation; sauna shower, fish, I think most people want the good wife seasons 1-6 dvd boxset to keep fit A good body constitution can greatly reduce the disease. Simpsons Season 26 DVD Box Set BBS or personal stations.
  
  
   http://www.promo-grimpe.com/spip.php?article124/
  
   http://www.jgddos.com/plus/feedback.php?aid=134
  
   http://www.fubbs.cn/forum.php?mod=forumdisplay&fid=2&filter=typeid&typeid=1
  
   http://www.bhzyxy.net/dxx/Review.asp?NewsID=2743
  
   http://ars.userfriendly.org/cartoons/read.cgi
  
   http://www.hmwnxx.com/Review.asp?NewsID=141
  
   http://park19.wakwak.com/~ryota/cgi-bin/shuwatti/ebbs/epad.cgi
  
   http://www.nj-bridge.com/ad/Review.asp?NewsID=447
  
   http://datazetta.com/profile.php?id=418
  
   http://ks35439.kimsufi.com/spip.php?article453/
  
   http://blog.whqsn.net/space.php?uid=2971&do=blog&id=107106
  
   http://xazcgj.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=10816542
  
   http://www.lpetl.com
  
   http://i-kor.com/bbs/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=213564
  
   http://cgi.members.interq.or.jp/www-user/cpcscan/msn/cgi-bin/bbs2/yybbs.cgi
TOP
8#
TOP
9#
TOP
发新话题 回复该主题

能源知识服务系统

Energy knowledge service system

用户中心

User center

联系我们

Contact us